No changes this morning. Sunny, dry and warming through the weekend into early next week. We continue to keep the state precipitation free all the way through at least Monday, and parts of the state can stay dry longer. Eastern and southern parts of Ohio need to monitor the track of Florence closely, as that will be the limiting factor to a longer dry pattern in those areas. In the meantime, we see excellent dry down potential with low relative humidity values and maximum evaporation rates.
Florence has been slowly moving over the past few hours, working into North and South Carolina. She likely drifts a bit farther south before heading west and then eventually curving north. We are keeping a chance of scattered showers in over southern and eastern Ohio next Tuesday and early Wednesday. We are keeping coverage at 40% of the state and continue to think that clouds will likely be seen in many more areas of the state. That should cap warmth a bit more next Tuesday. The exact track of Florence’s remains will start to shape up over the weekend, and we will keep watching where she looks to be headed during that time. AT right we have an updated map of potential precipitation here through Wednesday morning (before our next front’s arrival). However, this precipitation outlook is heavily predicated on Florence’s track not moving much past the Appalachians. If she does this weekend, we may be putting out a different look come Monday morning.
We are keeping an arrival time for our next front of later next Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. However, this little feature is falling apart. Rain potential has looked minor for a few days, but now looks almost non-existent. Just because we are slow to give up on it, and the front is still there, we will keep rain totals at a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but we are pulling coverage back even farther, to now no more than 25% of Ohio. Its just not a major story…and we are back to dry weather for Thursday and Friday.
A stronger, more organized frontal boundary moves in for overnight next Friday night into early Saturday. Rain totals can be up to .75” but will only be that high where there are thunderstorms. AT this point, we think the best threat of that will be in north central and west central parts of Ohio. The rest of the state just sees scattered showers, and the moisture fall apart Saturday morning as the front moves south and east. Coverage will be at 60% or less. We wont completely rule out a few scattered showers coming off of Lake Erie through the morning and midday hours next Sunday…but they do not have enough strength or momentum to really become a big story for the rest of the state. There is another front around the 25th as we kick off the extended forecast window. That front looks very similar to next Friday night and Saturday. However, the bigger story likely is the cooler, drier Canadian high pressure that comes in behind those fronts. We can see this air mass pooling over the prairies, just waiting for the invite to move south and east…those two fronts combined may do just that.
Temps will be easily well above normal through the weekend and the first half of next week. The second half we have temps back closer to normal, and then for the extended period, we expect a move to normal and below normal levels, just in time to flip the calendar to October.