Showers and thunderstorms continue over Ohio today. We can see an additional .25″-1″of action today, but thunderstorms will be what pushes the upper end of the range. Those look to be mostly limited to north central and northeast Ohio, although we don’t want to get too cute and count them out anywhere else. The rains will attempt to end west to east today, but it will take into the evening to get action to leave in the east. Today’s rain coverage will be around 70%.
We are dry for tomorrow with full sunshine. Friday looks drier too, as the front sagging in from the north continues to lose available moisture. However, we still think that central Ohio can see decent rains Friday afternoon, particularly later, and then the southern third of the state can still see lingering rain for Saturday. Moisture totals look to be mostly from a few hundredths to half an inch max. Northern Ohio sees very little moisture from this little wave.
Scattered showers are back Sunday afternoon into Monday. These can be some nice showers, with the best precipitation from this wave in right over the top of Ohio. The map at right shows combined rains through midnight Tuesday night. A second wave of light moisture returns on Wednesday, bringing rain totals of a quarter to half an inch. The European model really goes nuts with a monster storm that would bring 1-3 inches of rain on Wednesday. But, it is an outlier, and so far, has only produced that kind of massive system on 1 model run. So, we are discounting it right now.
The extended period is trending drier in our opinion. We see our moisture threat for the 17th dwindling to nothing, and the rest of the extended window whether southern moisture is able to miss us to the south, staying south of the Ohio river, or whether it will want to lift north. Right now, we are biased toward a drier run, but strong southwest winds for the 19th through the 21st may bring scattered showers in, and we should at least raise the possibility of some .25”-.75” rains in the middle of that 11-16 day forecast window.
Temperatures will be near normal through most of the upcoming period, with no major heat or cold air coming. The heat is locked up in the northern plains over the next week, and we do not see any credible threat of that coming this direction.