No change in today’s forecast, but we are going drier overall for the weekend and next week.
Today we start to see south winds build on the backside of high pressure. This will be enough to take temps slightly warmer than yesterday, but we remain rather pleasant overall. We keep mostly dry weather in for Saturday as well. A strong front comes out of the Dakotas this morning and moves across the upper Midwest and parts of the corn belt through tomorrow. This brings heavy rains to MN, WI, IA and northern IL, but everything seems to stop and fall apart right about there! We won’t rule out some scattered showers trying to ramp up across Ohio on Sunday, particularly later in the afternoon and evening, but still, even Sunday looks less impressive than we earlier thought. Since we are kicking off a holiday weekend here, we are going to go ahead and be a little more optimistic in our forecast. Sunday action will be limited to a few hundredths to no more than half an inch, with coverage at 50% of the state.
We then go back to a mostly dry pattern for Monday through Wednesday. This is also a change drier in our forecast. We think temps will be above normal, but humidity levels will not be as high as early this past week, and that should keep instability significantly lower. So, we are leaving good precipitation out of the forecast. Then later in the week, scattered showers are still in for Thursday on through into the weekend. We can add another half inch or less over 40% of the state out of that. The map below at right shows cumulative precipitation potential through end of next week.
The extended period remains wet, especially to start. The front we have been talking about for the 10th through the 12th looks more impressive this morning and potentially can tap into the Gulf of Mexico for further strengthening and moisture development. If this can happen, it will take our rain totals higher, with half to 2 inches possible combined over the 3-day period. Behind that system we see strong high pressure coming in over the great lakes for the balance of the 11-16 day forecast window. This should still allow for cooler air and a significant change in air mass coming for mid-month.