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Bearish August numbers from USDA

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Today’s USDA monthly Supply and Demand Report detailed actual expected corn and soybean yields across Ohio and the Midwest. It was a bearish report for both corn and soybeans. Corn was down 4 cents and soybeans were down 23 cents following the report. Prior to the report corn was down 2 cents and beans were down 10 cents.

The soybean ending stocks were up 205 million bushels due to an average yield of 51.6 bushels per acre. That is up from last month’s prediction of 48.5 bushels per acre. The corn yield was predicted to be 178.4, up from last month’s 174-bushel prediction.

Don’t be surprised that corn and soybean harvest will commence earlier than that of last year. Corn demand could easily be ratcheting higher in coming months. Last month USDA raised U.S. corn exports 125 million bushels to 2.225 billion bushels. The export could reach last year’s level of 2.4 billion bushels. With reduced corn production in South America in recent months export demand should be shifting to the U.S.

Many feel corn futures have found a bottom during July. U.S. farmers and traders will be watching further details of the U.S. $12 billion dollar aid package. Dry weather in the EU and North China look to provide support for corn prices. The U.S. farm aid could slow farmer sales. As of mid-July, producers still have 2017 corn yet to move to grain facilities.

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