By Ryan Martin, Ohio Ag Net Chief Meteorologist
Some tweaks to the forecast this morning, as we trend a little drier. Warm air is starting to build over the state today, and we will see our temps climb steadily each day now through the weekend. By Sunday we should be looking at 90-degree temps possible over a large chunk of Ohio. The flow into the region looks drier overall this morning, but, an offshoot of warm/hot air is instability that allows for some pop-up thunderstorms or even showers. We do not think these will be as big of a deal now as we had concern about earlier in the week, but we are not going to completely remove them either. The best threats of some isolated pop up action will be Saturday night and Sunday, as the heat reaches its zenith. Otherwise, we are basically rain free through the period. The map above shows temps for Sunday.
Next Monday looks dry too, but we start to see the heat back off a bit, as high pressure diminishes. Clouds will be on the increase as our next front gets closer. That front impacts us from Tuesday afternoon/ through Wednesday and Thursday at the very least. On Tuesday as things start up, we see the best threat in NE Ohio, as the system comes out of the Thumb of Michigan down across Lake Erie. We are also leaning toward keeping moisture in for Friday as well but will need to watch that. This front will bring milder air back into the state but will be a slow-moving event. Action Tuesday may be limited to far north central and northeast Ohio, then through Wednesday and Thursday showers move south. All told, for the 3-day period combined, we look for rain totals to be from .5”-1.5” across 90% of the state. Rains may not get into south and southeast Ohio until later Wednesday night and Thursday. This slow-moving front will be what allows for the good rain totals and the good coverage. The action will not be in a hurry to get through.
As we said, we are wanting to keep some rain in the forecast for Friday, but it will be diminishing in scope.
In the extended period, we start with some scattered showers for Sunday the 24th, with rain totals up to half an inch. Then after several dry days, we end up with significant rains from a slow-moving system bringing half to 2” totals to the state from the 27th through the 30th. Coverage will be nearly 90% of the state from that late June system.