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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — March 23, 2018


Dry, sunny and cool today. A pretty simple forecast

The next system to watch moves across the eastern corn belt tonight and tomorrow. This system still looks to miss most of Ohio, but it does pose a bit of a challenge. The storm complex is on s NE to SE track, moving from the upper Midwest later today to eastern KY and WV by the end of tomorrow night. Moisture here is unchanged from our previous looks…mostly a quarter to three quarters of an inch, but also only in the south, and mostly southwest part of the state. The numbers given are liquid equivalent, and that is important, because cold air is racing in across the state tomorrow. So, we believe there will be snow in SW Ohio tomorrow. Right now we look for this only in the far southwest, and south central part of the state, and coverage is less than we saw earlier this week. We think that barely 20% of the state will be open to some snow development. The map shows where we look for this potential the most. Snow totals can be a coating to at most 4 inches, and if warmer air is able to hold on longer we can see lesser totals. And that is what we are hoping for. Trust us…we are fine with you hoping we are completely wrong here. But, this looks like a mess for SW Ohio tomorrow. There will be some rain mixing in too, but not a lot in Ohio. On a positive note, though…a large part of the state completely misses out on this event, and should be on the way to a better weekend. North central and northeast locations may even see a good deal of sun through the day tomorrow! The map shows snow totals by midnight tomorrow night. We should be able to look at much better weather statewide for Sunday.

We are going to be dry, but potentially cloudy for Sunday, sunny and not as cold for Monday. Strong south winds will help moderate temps on Monday ahead of our next system.

Tuesday kicks off a complicated, messy, damp 3 day period, where scattered showers of varying intensities move through. Tuesday, we see the best rains over the northern third of the state. There we can see .25” to nearly .5” of rain mostly from US 30 northward. Then for Wednesday-Thursday we can see additional chances for showers that can bring another few hundredths to half an inch. However, the upper end of the range for Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be in central and southern parts of the state, away from where the rains fell Tuesday. So, what that means is that we should see a decent spread of rain over the state through the period, with combined totals at .4”-1” and coverage at 75%. We shift back to a dry pattern briefly for next Friday.

That dry pattern now looks to extend through at least Saturday. This is a change in our forecast, as our next system looks delayed just a bit. We are still going to keep Easter wet at this point, but we may be able to delay the start of action until closer to midday. Models are in disagreement on the timing of the front, but still show it to be a strong one. If we delay the arrival of the rain until Easter Sunday or even later in the day on Sunday, that will stretch the rains into the first part of the 11-16 day window.

The rest of the extended forecast shows a strong storm complex moves through around the 5th. This front will look to bring rains from .25”-.5”, but may raise the specter of a few thunderstorms as well. Strong high pressure is still expected for the 6th forward.


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