Significant changes in the forecast pattern this morning. While it is still cold this morning and we stay chilly into tomorrow, we are going to transition from the cold and snowy pattern that we saw for the first 11 days of February to a warm and wet pattern for the next 10 days. The map below is 10 day precipitation potential for the region. Time will tell if we swing back to a cold, snowy pattern for the last 6 days of the month, but it looks possible. Here is how it all starts to unfold.
Cold air is in over a large part of the state this morning, and we still have some precipitation trying to leave southeastern Ohio as well. Clouds have held in moderately over the state, and that has staved off the subzero temperature push we had originally been concerned about here. However, as we go through the overnight, we will see a few low single digits readings and some subzero temps early tomorrow morning. Today, we above freezing up to at least US 30.
Tomorrow, after that chilly start, we should see a further warming push, as sun is gradually replaced by clouds. A wave of moisture pushes by to the south late tomorrow afternoon, staying south of the Ohio River. That means we see some clouds move in for your Wednesday, but we don’t think there is much precipitation here. That seems to be confined to areas farther west. We should see temps in the 40s and 50s at least statewide.
Moisture does arrive here in Ohio on overnight Wednesday night, and then a stronger front sneaks in for late Thursday. Rains overnight Wednesday night and Thursday will be from .05-.3” with coverage at 70%. Then, out of the stronger wave Thursday overnight into Friday, we can see 1-2 inch rains from US 30 southward, and a quarter to .75” rains north of 30. The moisture may not leave most of Ohio until sometime late Friday afternoon. This will be a very wet period. Keep in mind our ground situation: early this week we find ourselves frozen – after the cold start to the month. Even with a couple of days of thawing, we still think rains of that magnitude will lead to some quick water accumulation and we may have to watch for some flooding. Colder air should be expected behind the front for late Friday, and there likely will be a chilly start to the weekend on Saturday.
Even with the cool start on Saturday, we should be dry with high pressure in place over SW Ohio, and we keep dry weather in for Sunday as well. Southwest winds for later Saturday and Sunday should put temps mostly back above normal to finish the weekend.
We have a damp start to the week next week with scattered showers slowly moving through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The rains have no more than a few hundredth to .25” on any given day, with daily coverage at 50% or less. But, combined through the period, we should see .25”-.5” rains and 80% coverage. Temps remain above normal.
Colder air comes in for the second half of next week with temps below normal. However, there is no precipitation in that colder push. A clipper for Sunday the 25th can bring some scattered snow, or perhaps some rain mixing with snow. The much stronger front is in for the 26th and 27th, bringing liquid equivalent precipitation of half to 1.5” over the entire state. Right now south flow ahead of that system would indicate rain potential, but the timing of the cold air arrival will be the key going forward.