Colder air finally moves in to the state today, after we were able to get an unexpected extension of mild air through the day yesterday. There is a minor clipper moving through the great lakes today as the cold air comes into Ohio, and it will be enough for us to continue talking about some light snow, mostly over the northern half of the state. US 30 northward in north central and northwest Ohio will be where we focus this morning through midday, and then eastern Ohio this afternoon and evening. In the east, we can see several inches of accumulation in NE Ohio, and even some good accumulations down closer to the OH-WV border in southeast Ohio. All action should be done by shortly after midnight tonight. SW and south central Ohio south of I-70 will be areas most likely to miss out today
Tomorrow high pressure sets up over the state and that will keep us chilly through most of the day. WE will have to wait for southwest winds to develop on the backside of the high before we can start to see some temperature moderation, and that likely does not happen until this evening into the overnight. However we still see winds become very strong for Wednesday, averaging 15-30 mph and that will take temps well above normal at midweek. This also will signal a strong front moving closer from the west.
That front arrives overnight Wednesday night through Thursday. Moisture begins in northern Ohio around and after midnight Wednesday from US 30 northward. We think precipitation will still be mostly rain, even though it starts at night, as temps stay near or above 35 degrees. Through the day Thursday the front moves south and east, triggering rains of .1”-.6” over about 90% of the state. Temps will flirt with levels that can cause the rain to mix with or change back and forth with snow. But, the predominant action will stay liquid. The heaviest action stays south into KY, and pretty much all moisture is gone by late Thursday night, before the coldest air moves in.
Cold high pressure is back for Friday, and we may move into single digits or near zero overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. Those temperature levels will be most likely to be seen in east and northeast Ohio. South winds return on the backside of the high Saturday afternoon. Overnight Saturday night through Sunday we have a minor system moving through that s mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and/or rain. Liquid equivalent totals will run from .1”-.5” and coverage will be nearly all of the state. As we get closer to the event, we likely will be able to reduce that list of 4 potential precipitation types down a bit, but right now, we are in a prime position to see any of those, and likely more than 1 type.
Cold air for Monday fuels a clipper that brings some significant snow to Michigan and across Lake Erie. This snow can make it down to US 30 to start next week and may linger into Tuesday in those areas. Movement will be slow, however, that that may lead to some better snow chances, particularly in NW and north central Ohio Monday afternoon and Monday night. The moisture moves south and east through Tuesday and can bring a mix of rain and snow to the rest of the state. Coverage looks better here than farther west, and 80% of Ohio could see this mess next Tuesday. Liquid precipitation total can be up to half an inch or more, in a combination of rain and snow.
Cold air is pooling up in the Canadian prairies and it looks to break free for next week. This should come in for midweek, and should take temps below normal, this time for more of an extended period. We are likely to see some subzero temps the second half of next week. The 11-16 day period shows several clippers on the move. One crosses the great lakes the 8th, another 11th, and a third for the 13th. All have a chance of bringing snow, and cold air will be the feature that really sets the tone for the pattern. It looks to be coming back with a vengeance.