Another dry day today as high pressure starts to leave the region. Southwest winds will dominate once again but won’t be as strong as yesterday. We should see sunshine over a large part of the state, but clouds will be trying to increase, especially this afternoon with an approaching cold front. That front will not impact us until likely midday tomorrow. Moisture remains unimpressive and we will keep rain totals at a few hundredths to .3”, but honestly, most areas will be .2” or less. Coverage for tomorrow’s rains come in at 70%. Action develops near or shortly after noon, and is gone by midnight.
Behind the front, we have drier weather back for a good 4 days and high pressure dominates. We cool off for Friday, but should see a slow build in temps through the weekend. The biggest hint of our being in a cooler air mass behind the front will be morning lows, as we should dip below freezing Friday morning, Saturday morning and even in a few spots Sunday morning. Daytime highs will not be too far away from normal (which is still a good 15 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday, if you want to compare). Sunshine is the major player for the period.
Next week is getting a little interesting. A strong storm complex develops in the plains Sunday night into the start of next week. This low splits into a “double barreled” low formation lifting east and north. A warm front out of the northern low will bring scattered showers to great lakes Monday morning. Most of this moisture will be in Michigan and Wisconsin and perhaps a bit in northern Indiana. But, we won’t rule out a small bit of it sneaking into far NW OH early Monday morning. Most of the state will be dry Monday though. Then, Monday night through Tuesday, we fall under the influence of strong southwest winds ahead of the coming cold front with the second low. Rains will be light Monday night through Tuesday morning, but we see a second surge of action Tuesday midday through early Wednesday. Combined, those rains will yield .25”-.75” and coverage at 70%. We may have to watch for some thunderstorms in far southern and SW Ohio, but that threat should stay farther south and west. Southern Ohio can pick up another .25” through the day Wednesday, but action stays south of US 50. The rest of the state will stay dry Wednesday, but cooler temps settle in over the state behind the front.
Slowly we dry out for Thursday and Friday with Canadian high pressure easing in to the western corn belt. We never really fall under the influence of the high, but we see it blocking any moisture or systems coming in from the west and northwest.
In the extended forecast period we have a minor upper level low moving over the great lakes for Saturday the 9th, bringing .05”-.5” rain potential to 60% of the state. Then the rest of the period from the 10th through the 14th we see a somewhat cloudy, gray period, with no new rain, but also not a lot of sunshine. A somewhat typical late fall early winter sky pattern is expected. A large upper level trough will be sitting over the eastern third of the country. Even though we think high pressure to be here, especially the 14th, it won’t be especially dominating, and we think that the flow pattern is not one that is conducive to a fully sunny, dry pattern.