No change in our pattern this morning. We still see 3 systems moving through Ohio over the coming 10 days. The map below shows cumulative rain potential through those 3 systems. We do expect today to be better than yesterday, as we should have better potential for sunshine. High pressure is moving off to the east, and south winds will allow clouds to break up.
A front moves into the area tomorrow and brings some minor rains with it. The arrival is tomorrow afternoon and action goes up to midnight tomorrow night. We are keeping our rain totals at a few hundredths to .4” over 70% of the state. The rains look light and gentle.
A slight pause brings dry weather for Thursday, but clouds likely hold on thanks to colder air pushing in. Our next system is moving a little faster, and may start to bring rains as soon as Friday late afternoon. This faster arrival is part of the reason we are thinking clouds may dim the sun again for at least part of Thursday. Rains continue for Friday overnight and most of Saturday. We may see some action last past midnight Saturday night but it still should be well east of the state by Sunday morning. The threat of thunderstorms does not look as strong this morning, thanks to less heating and instability. Still, we are looking for some fairly good rain totals over time. From Friday midday through sunset Saturday we still look for .25”-.75” over 90% of the state.
The weekend system arriving a little sooner means we are drier a bit sooner as well. We stay dry for Sunday and Monday, but think that we have a better chance for sun by Sunday midday. High pressure will move through, and colder air will be here. The winds to not look as strong for Sunday, but can still be brisk.
Moisture is back for next Tuesday as another quick moving system comes in from the west and southwest. Rain totals are not overly impressive, but can give us a few hundredths to as much as .3” over 70% of the state. This system will be more looked at for the air mass it leads in. We expect a nice push of cold, Canadian air to move into the region for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Temps likely move to below normal levels at midweek and stay there through the holiday weekend.
In the extended period, we are starting to trend just a little drier on the whole, mostly due to the cold Canadian air that wants to camp over the eastern US. The upper level high steers most systems by to the north or erodes the small moisture content that tries to nose in. At this point, we will keep an eye out for a few flurries around the 24th into the 25th, but those are not likely a big story. We may have to talk about a chance of some lake effect snow in northern parts of the state, with strong winds coming across Lake Erie for Saturday and Sunday, the 24th and 25th.