You knew he was going to jump, it was just a matter of when. He has a mind of his own and did finally jump. Buster had the last word as he did not make the top but instead caught the open door where he hung by his front paws as the door swung closed from the momentum of his jump. His eyes quickly revealed the surprise he was living through as it was not nearly what he had expected.

Buster loves to take a risk, just as producers take a risk each planting season with the expectation that a great yield will reward them a few months later.

For the past several months, producers and traders alike have been hearing a whole bunch of comments about the March 31 USDA planting intentions report. They included, "most important USDA report of 50 years," and "far reaching implications." It did not disappoint as it indicated corn acres for 2008 would be 86 million acres, 1.4 million acres below trade expectations while comparing to acres last year of 93.6 million acres.

USDA projected soybean acres would be 74.8 million acres, more than 3 million acres above trade expectations, with last year's soybean acres at 63.6 million acres. It certainly was a huge surprise to the market as soybeans closed lower by the new 70-cent limit. Early March saw new crop November soybeans set a new contract high of $14.73. On April 1, they reached a several month low of $10.45.

December corn on the March 31 crop report day closed at $5.76, up 5 cents for the day. During the month of March, December corn had a contract high of $5.90. Since that time it has made a new contract high of $6.28. Concerns over slow planting progress during early April helped push prices to those levels.

Elated and terrified. These are the words spoken in one sentence as producers begin to get down to the business of spring corn planting activity. They are elated at the corn prices they are seeing, which are at record high levels. Yet, they are terrified at the amount of money it takes to get the crop in the ground due to record high input costs. It is no secret that it is taking $500 or more to plant an acre of corn this spring.

Most producers are also elated at their good fortune of locking in their input costs last fall. Those that did not are faced with the harsh reality of fertilizer prices that have doubled in price since that time. The cheap U.S. dollar also is keeping demand strong for U.S. fertilizers being exported to other countries. Producers do have some concern about getting the inputs they have already paid for delivered to them as promised.

Last month's strike in Argentina ended as producers agreed to call off the strike, but issues precipitating their actions have not yet been resolved. If the strike is renewed, it will likely mean farm shipments of soybeans to their ports will be slowed. It could result in their shipments being diverted to the United States for shipment.

Wet, cool weather during early and mid April has raised a ton of concern about getting corn planted this spring in a timely manner. It does make for a lot of talk and what ifs. The simple fact is that with equipment re-tooling of the past 10 years, U.S. producers can plant the vast majority of corn acres in a two-week period with decent weather. Producers have made a major investment in planting equipment as well as harvesting equipment in order to see planting and harvesting take place in quick fashion. In addition, they have made a major investment in farm grain storage bins in order to keep their combines moving efficiently during fall harvest.

Producers can expect a lot of price volatility during the next 60 days. Weather is going to be a huge factor with grain prices moving in opposite directions as traders and producers realize weather forecasts are updated every six hours. Don't be surprised if the huge commodity and index funds exit the corn or soybean market at any time to avoid huge weather-price-induced swings that are very likely in the months ahead.

Some are predicting corn could reach $7 if it becomes evident it is not being planted in a timely fashion. Stocks could tighten by several hundred million bushels should yield expectations become threatened.

Thought for the day

"If it weren't for electricity, we would be watching TV by candlelight." - George Gebel